Charlotte's Finest

The Frechest of Takes

• David had the highest score in the league this week, beating all 9 other teams. His playoff odds went from basically 0% to ~45%, but FVOA still has him as the 8th strongest team at 2-4, so one big week buys him a lot less than it feels like.
• PFinn sits in 1st at 5-1, but FVOA has him 3rd strongest with only ~50% playoff odds, down ~24 points on the week. The schedule luck sim agrees: none of 1,000 random schedules leave him ranked higher than 1st, and ~88% would drop him.
• Josh is the biggest disagreement in the league: dead last in 10th at 1-5, but FVOA has him as the 6th strongest team. He has played the hardest schedule so far, and ~96% of random schedules would leave him ranked higher. Even so he's only at ~23% to make playoffs, because 1-5 is 1-5.
• Diaz is the biggest riser, up 4 spots to 5th strongest, and at 2-4 he still has the 2nd best strength of record, with an unlucky schedule. Bobby went the other way, falling 4 spots to 9th after David hit him for 74, and he's down to ~21% for playoffs.
• Week 7 is a slate of pure coin flips, with every game between 50% and 51% for the winner. Scott vs David is the best game by FVOA's overall score, and I'm 1-point favorite, which feels like exactly the kind of bet that burns me.
• Commish Corner - Commish has the best strength of record in the league while playing the hardest schedule, is the 2nd strongest team, and has the best playoff odds at ~60% along with the best shot at the 1st seed at ~27%. Beat Josh in a coin flip this week and he jumps to ~85% to make playoffs, lose and he drops to ~35%.